• Forecast: Detroit’s economy showing resiliency as employment and wages grow over time
• The February recurring General Fund revenue estimates total $1.42 billion in the 2026 Fiscal Year, up $14.6 million from the September 2025 conference estimates. The wagering tax is the main driver in the higher-than-expected revenue

DETROIT, MI - On February 13, the City of Detroit held its regular biannual Revenue Estimating Conference to receive the latest report on the Detroit economic outlook and to approve updated economic and revenue forecasts for the remainder of fiscal year 2026 and for fiscal years 2027 through 2030. State law requires the City to hold independent revenue conferences in September and February each fiscal year to set the total amount available for its annual budget and four-year financial plan.

The Detroit Economic Outlook 2025-2030 released last week, says Detroit’s economy is resilient as moderate growth in wages and employment is expected through the forecast after recalibrating to high interest rates, and national policy changes impacting trade and the auto industry. 

The forecast is prepared by the City of Detroit University Economic Analysis Partnership, which is a collaboration of economic researchers from the City, Wayne State University, Michigan State University, and the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) at the University of Michigan. 

The City’s revenue outlook is up compared to the September estimates showing continued growth in the major areas including wagering tax and property tax revenue. For the February Revenue Conference, participants have updated revenue estimates for the recurring General Fund from $1.41 billion to $1.42 billion for fiscal year 2026.

Forecast: Detroit economy resilient, sees moderate growth

Over the forecast period, Detroit payroll jobs are expected to grow, and Detroiters’ wages will climb at a faster pace than the State’s. 

“While growth over the next five years is expected to be moderate, Detroit's economy demonstrates notable resilience, as the current pause transitions to steady gains in employment, wages and household income,” said Gabriel Ehrlich, Director, University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics and lead author of the forecast.

Additional highlights in the forecast:

• The forecast calls for wage growth of Detroit residents to slightly outpace the statewide average, gradually narrowing the long-standing gap with wages city businesses pay. 
• By 2030, Detroit residents' average wages are forecast to rise to 53.6% of the average wage earned at jobs in city establishments—the highest reading since the start of the researchers' data in 2010.
• The average labor force count in Detroit has reached its highest level since late 2010, while its unemployment rate has roughly remained in single digits. That's encouraging, the report says, because it's occurred in a time of high interest rates and volatile international trade policies. 
• Another encouraging sign: the jobless rate gap between Detroit and the state has narrowed substantially over time, falling from 12.3 percentage points in 2010 to 3.3 points in 2023. It is expected to widen to 4.5 percentage points this year but narrow to 4.1 points by 2030. 

“The financial structure we’ve put in place over the last several years continues to make sure the City of Detroit can withstand economic downturns.  My administration remains committed to this path of fiscal discipline, ensuring we have the resources to deliver the neighborhood improvements and services every Detroiter deserves,” said Mayor Mary Sheffield.

City of Detroit Chief Financial Officer, Tanya Stoudemire notes: “Detroit’s economy as indicated in the University of Michigan’s Economic Outlook report is proving resilient, adjusting gears to the impact of shifting federal policy.  This stability is a direct result of over a decade of disciplined fiscal management and a collaborative partnership between the Mayor and City Council in making difficult but necessary decisions.”

Revenue Estimating Conference Results

The Revenue Conference reported FY2026 General Fund recurring revenues projected at $1.42 billion for the current fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, up $14.6 million from the previous conference estimate in September 2025. The increase is driven by the wagering tax which saw increases to internet gaming revenue.  State revenue sharing saw a decrease in both constitutional and statutory anticipated revenues tied to the State’s budget outcome last fall. This reduction in expectations will be offset by one-time dollars from a public safety grant. These dollars have detailed restrictions on spending and will be part of the City’s restricted special revenue fund.

General Fund recurring revenues for FY2027, which begins July 1, 2026, are forecasted at $1.43 billion, an increase of $8.68 million over the previous conference estimate in September 2025. This higher projection is due to expectations stemming in part from the continued growth of the wagering tax, coupled with stability from other major revenues.  The out-year forecasts for FY2027 through FY2030 show continued overall revenue growth of about 2% per year.

The City will use the revised estimates approved today to develop the City’s FY2027 Budget and FY2027 through FY2030 Four-Year Financial Plan. The voting conference principals are Tanya Stoudemire, the City’s Chief Financial Officer; Andrew Lockwood, Manager, Forecasting and Economic Analysis Division, Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis, Michigan Department of Treasury (Designee); and George A. Fulton, PhD, Director Emeritus, Research Professor Emeritus, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE), Department of Economics, University of Michigan.

To review past Revenue Estimating Conference Reports visit Revenue and Economic Reports on the Office of Budget’s website. 

• February 2026 Revenue Conference – Detroit Economic Outlook Slides
• February 2026 Revenue Conference – Revenue Estimate Slides
• February 2026 Revenue Conference meeting – VIDEO RECORDING